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DOI: 10.15862/10FAOR225 (https://doi.org/10.15862/10FAOR225)

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Merkulina I.A., Petrov I.V., Arsky, A.A., Zhiltsov D.A., Elkanova E.A. Classification and assessment of economic security risks generated by money laundering in supply chains. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s2). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/10FAOR225.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/10FAOR225

Classification and assessment of economic security risks generated by money laundering in supply chains

Merkulina Irina Anatolyevna
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: iamerkulina@fa.ru

Petrov Ivan Vasilyevich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: ivvpetrov@fa.ru

Arsky Alexander Alexandrovich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: arskiy@fa.ru

Zhiltsov Denis Anatolyevich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: dazhiltsov@fa.ru

Elkanova Elena Alekseevna
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: eaelkanova@fa.ru

Abstract. Supply chains are studied in economic security research mainly from the standpoint of the reliability of goods movement, while their role in forming money laundering channels has received no unified classification in the literature. The paper proposes a systematisation of economic security risks generated by money laundering in supply chains along six criteria, namely the source, the link of goods movement, the time horizon, the object of damage, controllability and measurability. The risks are derived from the documentary, settlement and institutional design of delivery rather than from the composition of predicate offences, which links every type of risk to an instrument of sectoral regulation. The empirical base comprises the data of the Bank of Russia on the structure of suspicious transactions for 2022–2025, the law enforcement statistics of the Federal Customs Service for 2024–2025, the reported indicators of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service for 2025 and the legal acts on freight forwarding. The assessment uses the indicative method with nine threshold indicators, an integral index computed as the geometric mean of normalised values, and structural shifts measured by the linear coefficient of absolute changes in shares and by the Ryabtsev index. Over 2022–2025 the aggregate volume of suspicious transactions fell by 43,7 per cent, while the structure of the grounds for cross-border withdrawal shifted from advance payments for goods towards payments for services, whose share grew from 9,2 to 21,4 per cent within one year. In 2025 goods-related and service-related grounds accounted for 93,4 per cent of the suspicious withdrawal of funds abroad, whereas carriers and freight forwarders are not listed in Article 5 of Federal Law No. 115-FZ among the subjects of primary financial monitoring. The integral security index across nine indicators equals 0,779, and across the comparable subset of four indicators it rose from 0,620 in 2023 to 0,840 in 2025. The decline of the aggregate volume is accompanied by a concentration of risk within the documentary contour of delivery. The results are applicable to the monitoring indicators of the Economic Security Strategy and to the design of the state register of freight forwarders.

Keywords: economic security; supply chains; money laundering; suspicious transactions; freight forwarding; risk classification; threshold indicators; integral index; structural shifts

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