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DOI: 10.15862/30ECOR425 (https://doi.org/10.15862/30ECOR425)

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Egorov Yu.V. Freight car turnover on the infrastructure of Russian Railways: current dynamics and forecast for 2026–27. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(4). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/30ECOR425.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/30ECOR425

Freight car turnover on the infrastructure of Russian Railways: current dynamics and forecast for 2026–27

Egorov Yuriy Vladimirovich
Emperor Alexander I Saint Petersburg State Transport University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
E-mail: orion56@mail.ru
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1485-4042
RSCI: https://elibrary.ru/author_profile.asp?id=317400

Abstract. The objective of this research is to investigate freight car turnover dynamics on the infrastructure of Russian Railways in 2015–2025, to identify the key drivers, and to forecast the indicator for 2026–2027. The following methods were used: time series analysis (including graphs), generalization, a comparative approach, and forecasting based on econometric modeling. The author believes that the relevance of this research is due to the insufficient attention paid by researchers to the dynamics of this indicator (over the past decade), identifying the main influencing factors, and forecasting the indicator. The research demonstrates that the sharp deterioration in this indicator in 2022–2025 is primarily caused by increased car downtime during freight operations and at technical stations. The author identified two interrelated reasons for this negative trend in the current situation: the reorientation of freight flows to the east and south with the increase in the average distance of freight transport by rail in the context of the changed geopolitical situation; and the lack of throughput and carrying capacity on railway lines in the eastern and southern directions of Russia. Using econometric models, the author predicted the stabilization of freight car turnover at a new level. The results of the research can be applied in the development of measures for state regulation of freight rail transportation, as well as in theoretical research in the field of rail transport economics in the future.

Keywords: freight car turnover; railway infrastructure; Russian Railways; downtime; freight flow diversion; throughput; carrying capacity

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