{"id":3721,"date":"2026-10-17T15:25:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-17T12:25:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/?p=3721"},"modified":"2026-10-17T15:26:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-17T12:26:06","slug":"17ecor326","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/17ecor326.html","title":{"rendered":"Multilevel assessment of fiscal and debt sustainability of state and municipal finances in the system of economic security of Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Anichkina Olga Aleksandrovna<\/strong><br \/>\nMoscow State University of Technology and Management named after K.G. Razumovsky (First Cossack University),<br \/>\nMoscow, Russia<br \/>\nE-mail: F-1980@yandex.ru<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Abstract.<\/strong> State and municipal finances form the channel through which external shocks and fiscal policy decisions are transmitted to all levels of the budget system, yet the indicators of the Economic Security Strategy of the Russian Federation have no approved threshold values, and the level of public debt does not reflect its dynamics. The purpose of the study is a multilevel assessment of fiscal and debt sustainability at the federal, regional and municipal levels from the standpoint of economic security. An indicator system is proposed that combines the static indicators of the Strategy, the norms of Article 107.1 of the Budget Code and dynamic indicators of debt sustainability, namely the difference between the effective interest rate and nominal GDP growth, the debt-stabilising primary balance and the ratio of the liquid assets of the National Wealth Fund to the deficit. Calculations based on data of the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Treasury, the Accounts Chamber and Rosstat for 2019\u20132025 show that with a low public debt of 16,4 % of GDP on 1 January 2026 the regime of debt dynamics has changed. The interest-growth differential moved from minus 8,1 p.p. in 2022 to plus 4,5 p.p. in 2025, the debt-stabilising primary balance rose from minus 1,09 to plus 0,62 % of GDP, and the fiscal gap reached 1,74 % of GDP. According to the 2026 estimate and the 2027 draft, the differential will remain positive at 2,7 and 3,0 p.p., and debt will rise to 19,9 and 21,7 % of GDP. The share of debt service in federal expenditure increased from 4,3 to 7,5 % and, according to the draft budget, will reach 9,4\u201310,6 % in 2027\u20132029, which by analogy with the norms for regions corresponds to low debt sustainability. Coverage of the deficit by liquid NWF assets fell from 2,56 times in 2022 to 0,68 times in 2025 and 0,56 times in the 2026 estimate. At the regional level, with a debt burden of 18,9 % of tax and non-tax revenues, the number of regions with a deficit rose to 73, and the share of budget loans in regional debt reached 78,4 %, which means a shift of debt risk to the federal level. Intergovernmental transfers and gratuitous receipts accounted for 64,8\u201367,7 % of local budget revenues in 2019\u20132024. Monitoring priorities and response measures by levels of the budget system are substantiated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Keywords:<\/strong> economic security; public finance; municipal finance; fiscal and debt sustainability; public debt; interest-growth differential; National Wealth Fund; regional budgets; intergovernmental transfers; fiscal rule<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Anichkina Olga Aleksandrovna Moscow State University of Technology and Management named after K.G. Razumovsky (First Cossack University), Moscow, Russia E-mail: F-1980@yandex.ru Abstract. State and municipal finances form the channel through which external shocks and fiscal policy decisions are transmitted to &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-issue-3-2026","category-article26"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3722,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3721\/revisions\/3722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/resources.today\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}