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DOI: 10.15862/10FAOR325 (https://doi.org/10.15862/10FAOR325)

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Kochetov D.S., Dosayev T.Kh., Dosayev E.Kh. Effectiveness of economic incentives in overcoming the demographic crisis: comparative analysis of Russia and foreign countries. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s3). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/10FAOR325.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/10FAOR325

Effectiveness of economic incentives in overcoming the demographic crisis: comparative analysis of Russia and foreign countries

Kochetov Daniil Sergeevich
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: daniilkochetov@yandex.ru

Dosayev Timur Khanovich
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: conoharendan@mail.ru

Dosayev Emil Khanovich
Federal State University of Education, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: teo.done@bk.ru

Abstract. The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of economic incentives used by states to overcome the demographic crisis, based on the Russian Federation and a number of foreign countries that have faced a steady decline in the total fertility rate below the level of simple population reproduction. The relevance of the study is determined by the ongoing decline in the birth rate in Russia, where the total fertility rate has decreased from its maximum value of 1,78 in 2015 to 1,4 in 2024, and the number of newborns has reached an all-time low, despite the extensive government programs for financial support for families. The article examines the main theoretical approaches to explaining the phenomenon of demographic transition, including the concept of the second demographic transition by R. Lesthaeghe and D. van de Kaa, the rational choice theory by G. Becker, and the institutional approach, which emphasizes the role of formal and informal rules in shaping reproductive behavior. A detailed analysis of Russia’s experience in economic incentives for fertility has been conducted, including the maternity (family) capital program, which has been in place since 2007 and provides for payments of up to 912 200 rubles in 2025, as well as a system of monthly child benefits, preferential mortgages, and tax deductions. Foreign experience is represented by an analysis of the pro-natalist measures of France, which has one of the highest birth rates in Europe due to its universal family benefits system and well-developed early childhood education infrastructure; Sweden, which implements a model of gender equality with a focus on combining parenthood and professional employment; Germany, which has significantly increased its spending on family policies; and South Korea and Japan, which are facing the deepest demographic crisis among developed countries. It has been found that economic incentives have limited ability to overcome the trends caused by the second demographic transition and exhibit a fading effect when used for an extended period. The author proposes a classification of pronatalist policy models based on the ratio of direct monetary transfers and infrastructure investments, which allows for an assessment of the comparative effectiveness of different approaches.

Keywords: demographic crisis; economic incentives; birth rate; maternity capital; pronatalist policy; total fertility rate; family policy; demographic transition; comparative analysis; population reproduction

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