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DOI: 10.15862/38FAOR425 (https://doi.org/10.15862/38FAOR425)

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Drobinin M.K., Mutsalkhanov A.M. Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Russian Federation in 2024–2025: from recovery growth to structural stabilization. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s4). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/38FAOR425.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/38FAOR425

Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Russian Federation in 2024–2025: from recovery growth to structural stabilization

Drobinin Matvey Kirillovich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail:240433@edu.fa.ru

Mutsalkhanov Abduljappar Mutsalkhanovich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail:242537@edu.fa.ru

Academic adviser: Turgaeva Aksana Albekovna
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail:aaturgaeva@fa.ru

Abstract. The article examines the key parameters and trends of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2024–2025. It is shown that the period under consideration is characterized by a change in the phase of the economic cycle: a transition from intensive recovery growth (2024) to a phase of stabilization and slowdown (2025). Based on data from Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service of Russia, forecasts by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and analytical materials from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the main macroeconomic contradictions have been identified. It has been established that the key challenge is the discrepancy between the growth of organizations’ revenue (+18,9 %) and the decrease in their profits (-8,3 %), which indicates a critical increase in operating costs. There has been a record low unemployment rate (2,3 %) amid a sharp decline in real household income. It has been concluded that further development requires addressing structural imbalances and finding a balance between monetary policy, fiscal sustainability, and investment activity.

Keywords: macroeconomic dynamics; inflation; investments; labor market; real incomes; fiscal system; and structural stabilization

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