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DOI: 10.15862/08FAOR325 (https://doi.org/10.15862/08FAOR325)

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Romashkin D.M. Formation of effective dividend policy of public companies under macroeconomic uncertainty. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s3). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/08FAOR325.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/08FAOR325

Formation of effective dividend policy of public companies under macroeconomic uncertainty

Romashkin Daniil Mikhailovich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: dan2242458@mail.ru

Abstract. The allocation of net profit between shareholder payouts and reinvestment remains one of the most debated issues in corporate governance theory and practice, gaining particular scholarly and applied relevance during periods of environmental instability. The present study focuses on identifying regularities that shape the adjustment of dividend strategies by Russian public companies over 2022–2026, a timeframe in which the national economy has been exposed to a compound impact of foreign jurisdictional restrictions, a prolonged cycle of interest rate tightening, and fiscal innovations. Foundational concepts of dividend decision-making, developed by both international and domestic academic schools, are juxtaposed with empirical observations of the behavior of major Russian issuers under conditions of multiple macroshocks. The evolution of the volume and structure of dividend flows is traced, and the roles of monetary, sanctions-related, fiscal, and regulatory transmission channels on management decisions regarding profit distribution are examined. The findings record a sustained shift in corporate practices away from the paradigm of maximum shareholder remuneration toward a model of preserving a margin of financial resilience. The contribution of this research consists in developing a multifactor classification of dividend decision determinants and in substantiating the pattern of declining payout ratios on the Russian market during an extended period of elevated interest rates. The conclusions formulated herein may serve as a methodological foundation for management and supervisory boards of public companies when calibrating dividend strategies, as well as for capital market participants when evaluating the sustainability of issuers’ dividend programs.

Keywords: dividend policy; public companies; macroeconomic uncertainty; key interest rate; dividend yield; corporate governance; state-owned enterprises; dividend taxation; sanctions pressure; stock market

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