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DOI: 10.15862/10ECOR125 (https://doi.org/10.15862/10ECOR125)

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Golovetsky N.Ya., Vasiliev A.A. Economic security of the Russian oil and gas industry: analysis of key factors and strategies. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(1). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/10ECOR125.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/10ECOR125

Economic security of the Russian oil and gas industry: analysis of key factors and strategies

Golovetsky Nikolai Yakovlevich
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: golovetskiy-ny@ranepa.ru
RSCI: https://elibrary.ru/author_profile.asp?id=715010

Vasiliev Anton Alekseevich
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: anton.vasilie2017@yandex.ru
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1703-4964

Abstract. The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic security of the Russian oil and gas sector in the context of sanctions pressure, global volatility in energy prices and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The study integrates the methodologies of PEST analysis, SWOT analysis and risk management, which allowed us to identify key external (sanctions, price fluctuations, environmental trends) and internal threats (corruption, technological dependence, personnel risks). Based on the analysis of data from leading companies (Gazprom, Novatek, Rosneft), the effectiveness of digitalization strategies, optimization of operating costs and investments in research and development is demonstrated. For example, the reduction of Gazprom’s operating costs from 7,47 trillion rubles in 2021 to 3,08 trillion rubles in 2023 confirms the success of modernization, and Novatek’s 30 % increase in LNG exports reflects progress in technological independence.

A comparative analysis of international experience has revealed the best practices of import substitution and digitalization, such as cost reduction by 20–25 % due to automation. The results of the study emphasize the need for a two-tier approach: at the state level, the creation of tax incentives, incentives for research and development and a regulatory framework for import substitution; at the corporate level, the introduction of digital risk management systems, process optimization and human resource development. The integration of quantitative and qualitative assessment methods (risk indexes, correlation analysis) has confirmed the relationship between technological investments, staff stability and the sustainability of companies.

The article formulates recommendations for improving the competitiveness of the industry, including the adaptation of foreign models, strengthening technological autonomy and integrated risk management. The findings are relevant for shaping strategies for the long-term sustainability of the oil and gas sector in the face of global challenges.

Keywords: economic security; oil and gas industry; sanctions; digitalization; research and development; import substitution; risk management; low-carbon economy; technological dependence; operating costs; personnel stability

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