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DOI: 10.15862/21FAOR325 (https://doi.org/10.15862/21FAOR325)

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Yavnik I.G. From the periphery of bretton woods to dual-core polycentrism: the roles of Russia and China in shaping the new architecture of world trade. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s3). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/21FAOR325.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/21FAOR325

From the periphery of bretton woods to dual-core polycentrism: the roles of Russia and China in shaping the new architecture of world trade

Yavnik Ilya Gennadievich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: Yavnick.ilya@yandex.ru

Abstract. World trade is undergoing the deepest restructuring of its supporting framework since Bretton Woods, in which institutions, settlement currencies, logistics routes, and market access standards cease to be the monopoly of the historical center of the world economy. The subject of this study is the roles of Russia and China in shaping the new architecture of world trade. The paper systematizes theoretical approaches to the analysis of trade architectures; substantiates a dual-core model of the emerging polycentric order, in which the Russian resource-institutional core and the Chinese industrial-financial core are connected by an outpacing conjunction zone; and provides a layer-by-layer characterization of the two countries’ contributions to the institutional, currency-settlement, logistics, and standards layers of the architecture. The measurement core consists of the mirror asymmetry coefficient of bilateral trade, the coefficient of the pair’s monetary sovereignization outpacing the global internationalization of the yuan, and the effective number of currency poles of world payments. Calculations are based on actual customs and payment statistics for 2024–2026. The results indicate that the new architecture is being built not by frontal replacement of the legacy one but in a focal manner, through outpacing bilateral and regional contours in which the settlement layer is rebuilt faster than the institutional and logistics layers. The findings are applicable in shaping Russia’s foreign economic strategy and designing institutions for the conjunction of Eurasian integration formats.

Keywords: world trade; architecture of world economic relations; Russia; China; polycentrism; settlements in national currencies; BRICS; integration conjunction; de-dollarization; economic cores

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