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DOI: 10.15862/36FAOR425 (https://doi.org/10.15862/36FAOR425)

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Medvedev E.M. Analysis of the status and prospects for diversifying coal product sales markets in the context of sanctions and changing global demand. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2025; 12(s4). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/36FAOR425.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/36FAOR425

Analysis of the status and prospects for diversifying coal product sales markets in the context of sanctions and changing global demand

Medvedev Evgeny Mikhailovich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: geka2004geka2010@yandex.ru

Abstract. Sanction restrictions on export channels for the Russian coal industry, resulting from the introduction of a complete ban on Russian coal imports by the European Union in August 2022, have necessitated a large-scale restructuring of export flows and a rethinking of strategic approaches to selling products in international markets. With global coal consumption reaching a record high of 8,85 billion tons in 2025, and exports from the Russian Federation reaching 211 million tons, a 7 % increase, the development of a sustainable, multi-vector sales system is becoming a strategic priority for ensuring budget revenues and social stability in regions whose development is directly linked to coal mining. This study aims to identify structural imbalances in the geography of Russian coal exports and to substantiate practical recommendations for reducing the concentration of supplies in certain destinations. The paper systematizes statistical data on export flows for 2022–2025, analyzes the legal and regulatory framework for the industry, evaluates government support measures, and identifies promising markets. The results indicate a critical dependence on China (44 % of exports in 2025) and untapped potential in countries of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a set of practical proposals for institutional support for diversification, including the creation of a specialized export operator, differentiation of the mineral extraction tax depending on the geography of supplies, the implementation of targeted tariff mechanisms, and mandatory export risk insurance. The practical significance lies in the potential for the proposed measures to be used by federal authorities and coal companies to ensure the sustainable development of the industry.

Keywords: coal industry; coal export; diversification of sales markets; sanctions; global demand; logistics; Eastern Polygon; mineral extraction tax; Kuzbass; Asia-Pacific region

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