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DOI: 10.15862/37ECOR422 (https://doi.org/10.15862/37ECOR422)

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Ivanov A.N. Expert methods for assessing and analyzing the risks of investment projects. Russian journal of resources, conservation and recycling. 2022; 9(4). Available at: https://resources.today/PDF/37ECOR422.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/37ECOR422

Expert methods for assessing and analyzing the risks of investment projects

Ivanov Artyom Nikolaevich
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: 79682872797@yandex.ru

Abstract. In this article, the author studies the issue of risk assessment of investment projects. Particular attention is paid to the methods most widely used in world practice. In particular, we are talking about expert assessment methods, which are conventionally divided into three groups. First of all, the author analyzes the method called «brainstorming». He notes that in order for all the experts to have their say, and for them to be heard by other participants in the discussion, an objective and experienced leader is invited to the meetings, who determines the goals of the discussion and directs it in the right direction. It is on him that the success of the brainstorming depends. The main thing in this method is the careful study of each expressed idea, which becomes a problem in the course of the practical application of the brainstorming method. Further, the author proceeds to consider the Delphi method. The uniqueness of the method lies in the fact that the experts do not have information about the composition of the members of the expert group, which deprives them of the opportunity to discuss the issues posed to them. In this case, it is impossible to influence one expert opinion on another, which ensures the most objective assessment. The article provides a diagram that clearly shows the application of the Delphi method. The author focuses on the fact that an organization that analyzes and assesses the risks of investment projects, when using the Delphi method, receives ownership of the unanimous opinion of experts on the problem under study. After that, the article discusses the bow tie method. The bow tie method combines the logic of a fault tree, which examines the causes of an event, and an event tree, which analyzes the consequences. The author has compiled a diagram illustrating the risk assessment mechanism using the bow tie method. In the article, the author also indicates the advantages and disadvantages of each of the considered assessment methods.

Keywords: investment project; risk assessment methods; Delphi method; bow tie method; peer review method; brainstorming; risks; risk management; economic efficiency

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